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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still