🔗 Share this article

Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|