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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.